On Further Dark Rumours Afoot

In an earlier installment, we at Lockewood & Associates previously discussed the standard expectations of success or failure for a standard scenario investigating a simple gathering to prepare those lucky investigators who attended Arkham Nights.  In doing so, we reminded investigators about our special rates available at that time since we foresaw significant risks with bodily injury and mental trauma.  

Although a fair number of investigators took up our offer, many did not.  Lockewood & Associates’ actuaries forcefully raised numerous concerns based on their detailed exposure analyses.  As a result, they wished that we present their findings to make ready investigators for the horror that may befall them without the proper insurance coverages. 

To that end, we present the risk profiles should you wish to complete a standard campaign involving any cultists running through Arkham or the strange happenings in the Arkham woods that may follow:

The Midnight Masks in a Standard Campaign

Standard 16 Outcomes (Adjusted Values)–Average Value of about -1.375
Result Number in Chaos Bag Chance to Draw
“+1” 1 6.25%
“0” 2 12.50%
“-1” 3 18.75%
“-2” 5 31.25%
“-3” 2 12.50%
“-4” 1 6.25%
“-5” 0 0.00%
“-6” 0 0.00%
“-8” 0 0.00%
“Skull” 0 0.00%
“Cultist” 0 0.00%
“Broken Tablet” 0 0.00%
“Mythos” 1 6.25%
“Elder Sign” 1 6.25%

*To statistically evaluate the percentage changes, the special tokens were given adjusted values, presuming that there were about 2 doom on any one cultist.  The chance to succeed would necessarily decrease as doom increases.

Before Pull Chance of Success (Agnes 2 Horror / Skids / Roland 2 Clues ) Chance of Success (Agnes 4 Horror / Roland 4 Clues) Chance of Success (Agnes No Horror / Daisy / Roland No Clues / Wendy No Amulet)
Under by 4 0.00% 6.25% 0.00%
Under by 3 0.00% 6.25% 0.00%
Under by 2 6.25% 6.25% 0.00%
Under by 1 12.50% 12.50% 6.25%
Equal 25.00% 25.00% 25.00%
Over by 1 43.75% 43.75% 43.75%
Over by 2 75.00% 75.00% 75.00%
Over by 3 87.50% 87.50% 87.50%
Over by 4 93.75% 93.75% 93.75%

With these realities, the likelihood of success would graphically appear much like this:

image-1

The Devourer Below in a Standard Campaign

 

Standard 17 Outcomes–Average Value of about -1.59
Result Number in Chaos Bag Chance to Draw
“+1” 1 5.56%
“0” 2 11.11%
“-1” 3 16.67%
“-2” 5 27.78%
“-3” 2 11.11%
“-4” 1 5.56%
“-5” 1 5.56%
“-6” 0 0.00%
“-8” 0 0.00%
“Skull” 0 0.00%
“Cultist” 0 0.00%
“Broken Tablet” 0 0.00%
“Mythos” 1 5.56%
“Elder Sign” 1 5.56%
“Elder Thing” 1 5.56%

As with the previous scenario, the chances of success appears like the following:*To statistically evaluate the percentage changes, the special tokens were given adjusted values, presuming that there were about 2 monsters in play at any one time.  The chance to succeed would necessarily decrease as the number of monsters increases.

Before Pull Chance of Success (Agnes 2 Horror / Skids / Roland 2 Clues ) Chance of Success (Agnes 4 Horror / Roland 4 Clues) Chance of Success (Agnes No Horror / Daisy / Roland No Clues / Wendy No Amulet)
Under by 4 0% 5.56% 0
Under by 3 0% 5.56% 0
Under by 2 5.56% 5.56% 0
Under by 1 11.11% 11.11% 5.56%
Equal 22.22% 22.22% 22.22%
Over by 1 38.89% 38.89% 38.89%
Over by 2 66.67% 66.67% 66.67%
Over by 3 77.78% 77.78% 77.78%
Over by 4 83.33% 83.33% 83.33%

image-5

As one can see, the sweet spot remains at 2 more than what the skill test requires.  Below that, the chances of success appear less than favorable.  Of course, some investigators wish to take harder or more expert challenges.  These investigators are generally foolish.

The Gathering in a Hard Campaign

Hard 16 Outcomes (Adjusted Value)–Average Value of about -1.88
Result Number in Chaos Bag Chance to Draw
“0” 3 18.75%
“-1” 2 12.50%
“-2” 4 25.00%
“-3” 2 12.50%
“-4” 2 12.50%
“-5” 1 6.25%
“-6” 0 0.00%
“-8” 0 0.00%
“Skull” 0 0.00%
“Cultist” 0 0.00%
“Broken Tablet” 0 0.00%
“Mythos” 1 6.25%
“Elder Sign” 1 6.25%

*The special tokens were given adjusted values with the cultist token’s percentage evenly distributed to all other tokens.

Before Pull Chance of Success (Agnes 2 Horror / Skids / Roland 2 Clues ) Chance of Success (Agnes 4 Horror / Roland 4 Clues) Chance of Success (Agnes No Horror / Daisy / Roland No Clues / Wendy No Amulet)
Under by 4 0% 6.25% 0
Under by 3 0% 6.25% 0
Under by 2 6.25% 6.25% 0
Under by 1 6.25% 6.25% 6.25%
Equal 25.00% 25.00% 25.00%
Over by 1 37.50% 37.50% 37.50%
Over by 2 62.50% 62.50% 62.50%
Over by 3 75.00% 75.00% 75.00%
Over by 4 87.50% 87.50% 87.50%

image-3

The Midnight Masks in a Hard Campaign

Hard 17 Outcomes (Adjusted Values)–Average Value of about -2.06*
Result Number in Chaos Bag Chance to Draw
“0” 3 17.65%
“-1” 2 11.76%
“-2” 3 17.65%
“-3” 2 11.76%
“-4” 4 23.53%
“-5” 1 5.88%
“-6” 0 0.00%
“-8” 0 0.00%
“Skull” 0 0.00%
“Cultist” 0 0.00%
“Broken Tablet” 0 0.00%
“Mythos” 1 5.88%
“Elder Sign” 1 5.88%

*This presumes about 4 doom in play at any one time.  The chance to succeed would necessarily decrease as doom increases.

Before Pull Chance of Success (Agnes 2 Horror / Skids / Roland 2 Clues ) Chance of Success (Agnes 4 Horror / Roland 4 Clues) Chance of Success (Agnes No Horror / Daisy / Roland No Clues / Wendy No Amulet)
Under by 4 0.00% 5.88% 0.00%
Under by 3 0.00% 5.88% 0.00%
Under by 2 5.88% 5.88% 0.00%
Under by 1 5.88% 5.88% 5.88%
Equal 23.53% 23.53% 23.53%
Over by 1 35.29% 35.29% 35.29%
Over by 2 52.94% 52.94% 52.94%
Over by 3 64.71% 64.71% 64.71%
Over by 4 88.24% 88.24% 88.24%

image-4

The Devourer Below in Hard Campaign

Hard 18 Outcomes (Adjusted Values)–Average Value of about -2.52
Result Number in Chaos Bag Chance to Draw
“0” 3 16.67%
“-1” 2 11.11%
“-2” 2 11.11%
“-3” 4 22.22%
“-4” 2 11.11%
“-5” 2 11.11%
“-6” 0 0.00%
“-8” 0 0.00%
“Skull” 0 0.00%
“Cultist” 0 0.00%
“Broken Tablet” 0 0.00%
“Mythos” 1 5.56%
“Elder Sign” 1 5.56%
“Elder Thing” 1 5.56%

*The additional token revealed from an “Elder Thing” token draw is ignored because it has a statistically insignificant affect on the likelihood of success since it would only increase the chance success for Wendy by 0.37%.

Before Pull Chance of Success (Agnes 2 Horror / Skids / Roland 2 Clues ) Chance of Success (Agnes 4 Horror / Roland 4 Clues) Chance of Success (Agnes No Horror / Daisy / Roland No Clues / Wendy No Amulet)
Under by 4 0% 5.56% 0
Under by 3 0% 5.56% 0
Under by 2 5.56% 5.56% 0
Under by 1 5.56% 5.56% 5.56%
Equal 22.22% 22.22% 22.22%
Over by 1 33.33% 33.33% 33.33%
Over by 2 44.44% 44.44% 44.44%
Over by 3 66.67% 66.67% 66.67%
Over by 4 77.78% 77.78% 77.78%

image-7

As you can see, 3 over the appears to be the most favorable position for a Hard Campaign version of “The Night of the Zealot.”

The Gathering in an Expert Campaign

Expert 18 Outcomes–Average Value of about -2.94
Result Number in Chaos Bag Chance to Draw
“+1” 0 0.00%
“0” 1 5.56%
“-1” 2 11.11%
“-2” 3 16.67%
“-3” 2 11.11%
“-4” 5 27.78%
“-5” 1 0.00%
“-6” 1 0.00%
“-8” 1 0.00%
“Skull” 0 0.00%
“Cultist” 0 0.00%
“Broken Tablet” 0 0.00%
“Mythos” 1 5.56%
“Elder Sign” 1 5.56%

*The cultist token’s percentage evenly distributed to all other tokens.

Before Pull Chance of Success (Agnes 2 Horror / Skids / Roland 2 Clues ) Chance of Success (Agnes 4 Horror / Roland 4 Clues) Chance of Success (Agnes No Horror / Daisy / Roland No Clues / Wendy No Amulet)
Under by 4 0% 5.56% 0
Under by 3 0% 5.56% 0
Under by 2 5.56% 5.56% 0
Under by 1 5.56% 5.56% 0.00%
Equal 11.11% 11.11% 11.11%
Over by 1 22.22% 22.22% 22.22%
Over by 2 38.89% 38.89% 38.89%
Over by 3 50.00% 50.00% 50.00%
Over by 4 77.78% 77.78% 77.78%

image-9

The Midnight Masks in an Expert Campaign

Expert 18 Outcomes–Average Value of about -2.94
Result Number in Chaos Bag Chance to Draw
“+1” 0 0.00%
“0” 1 5.56%
“-1” 2 11.11%
“-2” 3 16.67%
“-3” 2 11.11%
“-4” 5 27.78%
“-5” 1 0.00%
“-6” 1 0.00%
“-8” 1 0.00%
“Skull” 0 0.00%
“Cultist” 0 0.00%
“Broken Tablet” 0 0.00%
“Mythos” 1 5.56%
“Elder Sign” 1 5.56%

*This presumes about 4 doom in play at any one time.  The chance to succeed would necessarily decrease as doom increases.

Before Pull Chance of Success (Agnes 2 Horror / Skids / Roland 2 Clues ) Chance of Success (Agnes 4 Horror / Roland 4 Clues) Chance of Success (Agnes No Horror / Daisy / Roland No Clues / Wendy No Amulet)
Under by 4 0% 5.56% 0
Under by 3 0% 5.56% 0
Under by 2 5.56% 5.56% 0
Under by 1 5.56% 5.56% 0.00%
Equal 11.11% 11.11% 11.11%
Over by 1 22.22% 22.22% 22.22%
Over by 2 38.89% 38.89% 38.89%
Over by 3 50.00% 50.00% 50.00%
Over by 4 77.78% 77.78% 77.78%

image-10

The Devourer in an Expert Campaign

Expert 19 Outcomes–Average Value of about -3.21
Result Number in Chaos Bag Chance to Draw
“+1” 0 0.00%
“0” 1 5.26%
“-1” 2 10.53%
“-2” 2 10.53%
“-3” 4 21.05%
“-4” 3 15.79%
“-5” 2 10.53%
“-6” 1 5.26%
“-8” 1 5.26%
“Skull” 0 0.00%
“Cultist” 0 0.00%
“Broken Tablet” 0 0.00%
“Mythos” 1 5.26%
“Elder Sign” 1 5.26%
“Elder Thing” 1 5.26%

*The additional token revealed from an “Elder Thing” token draw is ignored because it has a statistically insignificant affect on the likelihood of success since it would only increase the chance success for Wendy by 0.37%.

Before Pull Chance of Success (Agnes 2 Horror / Skids / Roland 2 Clues ) Chance of Success (Agnes 4 Horror / Roland 4 Clues) Chance of Success (Agnes No Horror / Daisy / Roland No Clues / Wendy No Amulet)
Under by 4 0% 5.26% 0
Under by 3 0% 5.26% 0
Under by 2 5.26% 5.26% 0
Under by 1 5.26% 5.26% 0.00%
Equal 10.53% 10.53% 10.53%
Over by 1 21.05% 21.05% 21.05%
Over by 2 31.58% 31.58% 31.58%
Over by 3 52.63% 52.63% 52.63%
Over by 4 68.42% 68.42% 68.42%

image-8

3 over provides one an even chance of success, while 4 over the skill test appears to be the sweet spot in Expert campaign of “The Night of the Zealots.”

Initial Impressions

Based on the foregoing risk profiles, we again implore the investigators traipsing around Arkham looking for clues and avoiding foul beasts to purchase coverage for all their needs.

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